Presidential Election Ireland Odds: 2025 Connolly Win

Most people watching Irish politics knew Heather Humphreys as the betting favorite heading into 2025 — yet when the votes were counted, Catherine Connolly walked away with a landslide. The gap between what bookmakers were offering and what actually happened tells a story about how political betting markets work, and where they often miss the mark. This piece maps the pre-election odds landscape against the actual results, with a full timeline of everything from nominations to inauguration.

Election Date: 24 October 2025 · Incumbent President: Michael D. Higgins · Winner: Catherine Connolly (63.36%)

Latest odds on presidential election

Before the election, betting markets offered a window into how oddsmakers saw the race — but those odds shifted constantly as new information emerged. The two dominant platforms covering Irish politics betting were BoyleSports and, to a lesser documented extent, Paddy Power. Both operate under licenses regulated by the Revenue Commissioners in Ireland, giving them standing as legitimate market participants.

Overview of current markets

Pre-election betting on Irish presidential races draws from the same liquidity pools that power UK and Irish political markets. BoyleSports stood out for offering specialized markets beyond simple winner bets, including first-preference vote totals and preference transfer scenarios (The Punters Page). This variety attracted bettors who wanted more granular exposure to the outcome.

Key favorites listed

Heather Humphreys led the betting entering the final weeks at odds of 5/2 as the Fine Gael nominee (The Punters Page). That position made her the market’s frontrunner despite an independent campaign challenging her candidacy. The logic was straightforward: Fine Gael’s institutional support provided a baseline of electoral strength that oddsmakers factored into their probability calculations.

Paddy Power Next Irish President

Paddy Power occupies a distinctive position in the Irish betting landscape. While The Punters Page data shows BoyleSports as the primary source for detailed Irish presidential odds, Paddy Power’s broader UK market footprint means Irish political markets appeared within theirPolitics betting hub. The platform is owned by Flutter Entertainment, one of the world’s largest online gambling operators, which brings significant regulatory oversight to their political betting markets.

Current frontrunners

Pre-election frontrunner status was contested between Humphreys and Connolly, though Connolly’s polling position was stronger than her betting odds suggested. The RED C poll published 7 October 2025 showed Connolly at 36% first preferences versus Humphreys at 25% (Fondation Robert Schuman). When transfers were factored in, Connolly reached 49.3% compared to Humphreys’ 34.2% — a gap that foreshadowed her eventual margin.

Market specifics

Paddy Power’s political markets typically offer standard win/draw/lose markets alongside specialty options like exact vote share ranges. Their Irish politics section aggregated multiple candidate markets, allowing bettors to compare odds across the full field in one place. The platform’s mobile integration meant live odds were accessible throughout the campaign period.

Paddy Power Presidential odds

While specific Paddy Power odds figures aren’t publicly archived in detail, their platform’s market structure offers clues about how the odds moved. Political betting markets typically adjust based on polling data, candidate news, and cross-market arbitrage from competitors. For Irish presidential betting, the key variable was whether institutional party backing translated into electoral support — something the betting markets priced, but incorrectly in retrospect.

Comparison to other markets

Irish presidential betting operated within a ecosystem that included UK general election markets, US presidential odds, and broader European political markets. This cross-market exposure created pricing efficiency for well-funded bets but also meant Irish-specific knowledge could be undervalued against headline-grabbing international events. BoyleSports’ focus on Irish markets gave them an edge in local granularity that larger platforms like bet365 and BetVictor couldn’t match as precisely (The Punters Page).

Betting options

Standard Irish presidential betting options included outright winner, first-preference vote ranges, and margin markets. BoyleSports went further with their Invent-a-Bet feature, allowing bettors to construct custom markets like first preference versus overall winner discrepancies (The Punters Page). These options attracted sophisticated bettors looking to isolate specific electoral dynamics.

Boylesports presidential odds

BoyleSports served as the primary documentation source for Irish presidential betting odds in the 2025 cycle. Their Irish-specific focus meant markets reflected domestic political dynamics rather than international sentiment. As Ireland’s largest homegrown bookmaker, BoyleSports’ odds carry particular weight when assessing how the Irish betting public viewed the race.

Latest listings

BoyleSports’ pre-election listings showed Humphreys as the odds-on favorite entering the final month, with Connolly priced as the primary challenger. The gap reflected the market’s interpretation of party infrastructure advantages, institutional endorsements, and media coverage patterns. Jim Gavin’s candidacy (backed by Fianna Fáil but complicated by his late withdrawal) occupied a more distant position in the odds.

Irish election markets

Beyond winner markets, BoyleSports offered first-preference vote markets that allowed bettors to wager on granular electoral outcomes. This market structure recognized the instant-runoff voting system Ireland uses for presidential elections (The Punters Page), where first-preference shares tell only part of the story before transfers are counted.

The implication: BoyleSports’ detailed Irish-specific odds data provided the clearest window into how domestic bettors assessed the race, even as the market underpriced Connolly’s actual support.

BoyleSports next Irish President

For bettors tracking the “next Irish President” market, BoyleSports provided the most detailed publicly available odds data. Their political betting markets covered not just the presidential race but broader Irish electoral politics, including local and European election markets. This integrated approach meant users could hedge Irish presidential bets against other electoral outcomes.

Top candidates odds

The candidate odds hierarchy before election day showed Humphreys leading, followed by Connolly, with Gavin trailing. This ordering was consistent with BoyleSports’ pricing throughout the campaign, though Connolly’s RED C polling numbers suggested the market was underpricing her support. The implications for bettors who backed Connolly were significant: the odds offered value that the actual results confirmed.

Updates frequency

BoyleSports updated their Irish presidential markets continuously, with major adjustments following polling releases, candidate announcements, and key campaign events. The nomination period (5 September to 24 September 2025) represented a particularly active window for odds adjustments (Wikipedia). After Jim Gavin’s withdrawal but retention on the ballot (complicated by nomination deadline rules), markets had to recalculate scenarios that wouldn’t normally arise (Fondation Robert Schuman).

Three bookmakers dominated pre-election Irish presidential markets, with BoyleSports leading on Irish-specific depth.

Timeline of the 2025 Irish presidential election

The 2025 Irish presidential election followed a structured timeline established by constitutional and legislative requirements. The presidential term runs seven years, with elections held within 60 days before the incumbent’s term expires. Michael D. Higgins served the maximum two terms, necessitating the 2025 election to select his successor (Electoral Commission).

What the odds got right — and what they missed

The pre-election betting markets showed a clear favourite in Heather Humphreys, yet the actual result saw Catherine Connolly win with 63.36% of first-preference votes — the highest share for any Irish president since 1938 (Simple Wikipedia). The disconnect between betting odds and electoral outcome reveals fundamental limits in how political betting markets price Irish presidential races.

With 914,143 votes, she also recorded the highest number of first-preference votes ever received by an electoral candidate in Ireland.

— Simple Wikipedia (election results)

Betting markets tend to be more reliable because they reflect where people are putting their money, not just who they’d like to win.

— The Punters Page (betting analysis)

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Catherine Connolly’s 63.36% triumph over bookmakers’ pick Heather Humphreys unfolded as full results breakdown detail the candidates and key outcomes.

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